Endless economic growth might be epic?
Inspired by Adam Smith's observations in Wealth of Nations
Smith makes a reasonably convincing argument in Wealth of Nations that the cause of increased wages is not, as one might suppose, economic prosperity, but rather economic growth. We're going to assume his argument is valid for the purposes of this discussion and examine what the long-term ramifications might be for humanity
First of all, I think it's reasonable to say that the past few centuries of (real) exponential economic growth will come to an end at some point. That point is likely far off, but it will come. We cannot become infinitely efficient at making food or shelter or whatever, so the Malthusian prediction of population growth outpacing industry growth is bound to happen. Does this mean it's wraps for working people? Not necessarily. I see three main ways that this plays out:
- The global population stops increasing exponentially. This seems like the most likely scenario, given that it's actually
predicted to happen. In this case, the world population will never outstrip world production, and we'll definitely have enough food to feed the whole world many times over. The fate of the world's poor would then depend on us collectively making smart and equitable decisions about where we put our economic resources. If we don't manage our resources properly, then we may eventually leave all the world's workers in poverty because the lack of increased demand for labour will start to drive the price down.
- Nominal economic growth keeps going. In this case, we keep making more and more useless widgets to satisfy our species' addictions for more things and higher numbers. In this case, the world might actually be pretty good economically, but there will be some serious social ramifications if our consumption addiction is the only thing stopping a global epidemic of poverty.
- Neither of those things happen, and we get to a point where demand for labour starts to fall. This will lead to a corresponding decrease in the price for labour. How far exactly will wages drop? Smith's theory, in my view, says that they'll keep going down until they reach essentially subsistence level, since if they were any higher there would be workers willing to bid the price down to avoid unemployment. This seems like an economic catastrophe and the worst possible way to use our resources. We have
enough food to feed everyone
and we'll probably have even more food production by the time global economic growth starts to slow down. Yet somehow, based on everyone acting in their best interest, we'll end up leaving most of the world's population in poverty. Hopefully, the world's economists and policy makers will get their shit together to ensure we have a system in place to leave most people with a good quality of life.
- We go to space and humanity keeps growing forever lol
Anyway, whatever happens, we will have to deal with the fact that slowing economic growth causes a slowing demand for labour, and this will drive down the price for labour (or equivalently, most people's incomes) without a natural price floor keeping people out of poverty. I used to be in contempt of the modern drive for endless GDP growth, but now I realize that our economic policy makers are maybe having our best interests at heart. As absurd and tragic as the modern rat race is, the idea of most people having subsistence wages in the 21st century is more absurd and more tragic still.